Monday, 27 July 2020

Recruitment: filtering out the false negatives



The thing that stands out most in this article about online job portals is that a 5% response rate to her job applications is really dispiriting for the seasoned strategist. She wonders where the ‘human’ is in HR. This is when she applies for jobs well within her competency.
The recruitment filters aim to filter out false positives: the aspirational candidates no good for the role. They are ruining it for the honest people, but so are the recruiters. False negatives are as bad: recruiters miss out, and in aggregate, they create an environment in which good candidates still  have a big risk of being a false negative, which incentivises them to put less effort into each application.
That means that recruiters have less information; they have set up a system that is forcing candidates not to do any filtering for themselves by picking and choosing their best jobs, but instead trying as many jobs as they can because every one is a lottery and you have to be in it to win it. Recruiters are encouraging those ‘aspirational’ applications they’re trying so hard to avoid.
Dating websites had a similar problem. Men have a much higher demand for connections using them, and women are inundated with hundreds of messages. This means that they cannot read all messages and any men who wrote careful or thoughtful messages were very likely to have those messages missed. The incentive is therefore for them to give up; to be as scattershot as other men and wait until they get a reply before beginning to make an effort.
A step in the right direction is the swiping mechanism of Tinder or Bumble. This makes the initial screening as quick and easy as possible: each side sets up a profile in a standardised template and only when both are interested is it possible to put more effort in. Imagine users of one of these dating apps being asked supplementary questions by many profiles before being allowed to swipe right: it’s a good way to haemorrhage users and prevent matches. Users will simply start to ignore such profiles. Some users will fill in such questions, but they could as easily be game-playing creeps spotting a niche or fools with too much time on their hands as dedicated, well-balanced partners.
If the filtering of job applicants can be done from a standardised form, as with dating websites, that would help everyone. The equivalent of the initial right-swipe might be a check of qualifications and a minimum number of years of experience. As with dating, filtering by keywords is a great way to narrow the pool, but also a great way to exclude good options. Imagine looking for a partner who loves theatre by only accepting profiles with the word ‘theatre’ in them. A few synonyms might help: ‘plays’, ‘show’, ‘performance’ etc. After all, some people might write ‘I like to catch a show…’
It really needs human judgement to check, in a second or two, whether it’s right, because the possible phrases and permutations are too many to predict in a simple computerised search. That needs a basic profile, even shorter than a CV.
That might mean that recruiters can’t get around to looking at everyone, just as daters can’t. Yet people find soulmates through such a mechanism, so companies tempted to argue that this will lead to disastrous outcomes should think carefully. It might be true that our hormones get us addicted to a partner and deceive us into believing in the concept of soulmates. But anyone cynical enough to take that line must acknowledge that the concept of a soulmate employer is at least as much a deception.
By not reviewing some candidates, however, employers must overcome a number of mental blocks. I suspect that at the moment it’s easy to persuade oneself that the current system of filtering for in-demand jobs is fair and rigorous, because some sort of criteria are applied. Leaving out some people is definitely random. But poor criteria with either false positives or false negatives are also random. It’s better to be sure about some and open with the rest than random with everyone. How should we select those to assess more carefully? If no other method seems reasonable, randomly. Deliberate bias is worse than randomness.
I would welcome being told that there were so many candidates that a good panel to interview was found before I was even considered. This would be so much more informative than the usual ‘sorry but not sorry’ message. When combined with genuine messages (still possibly automated) telling me about failures I would then truly be able to judge what roles people were willing to consider me for and apply to more appropriate ones!
Matching is an iterative process and the key is to get through iterations with as little effort from  both sides as possible. Pushing all the effort onto one side might make the other side think everything is working efficiently but it creates problematic incentives. If you’re looking for sensible, intelligent candidates, you probably want people with the wit to recognise and respond to those incentives, not the chaff who don’t. And that’s purely from the self-interested point of view before we consider the possible effects on diversity and privilege of extra challenges that formal education does not address.
The formal structure of CV-assessment followed by interview is itself a relic of a time when there were far fewer candidates. The leap from CV (or even covering letter) to taking time off work to travel to someone else’s offices is a big one. The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has pushed alternatives such as telephone interviews. This is also a welcome advance that we shouldn’t abandon. Gradual iteration that is as conversation-like as possible is important: if at any point it’s clear that things shouldn’t continue then no more effort than was needed has been committed to discovering this.
Employers and daters alike enjoy being chased and putting no thought or effort into the matching process. This is a short-term solution only; it encourages stalking, exaggeration and unhinged, irrational attitudes. These are people who can be taken advantage of, but who aren’t going to be genuinely exceptional. These are the people the world is picking right now, but we can change that.

Monday, 20 July 2020

Playing games with the economy (or, 40 ways games simulate the wider world)


‘If people didn’t want it, they wouldn’t spend money on it’
             
              Criticising our current economy is like criticising your house. A big house with subsidence and mould and that’s dependent on external support might not be as appealing as a smaller home which has less risk of collapse, but too many people only care about size.
              Economic criticisms can be a bit abstract. We need examples, and the video game industry is a perfect example of the modern economy. We all understand what video games are. Games are things you play for fun. There’s no need behind it: no nutritional value to analyse, as with food, or structural integrity, as with buildings. People don’t need games but they do like them. If the games are bad people just won’t play. In these ways it’s a good example, not distorted by special factors.           
              If you’re not familiar with modern video games, you might be in for a surprise. But before we describe how, we’ve already got our first point. Some people prefer to enjoy themselves without being hooked into someone else’s creation: they chat with friends , go for a walk etc. Games companies regard your preferred activities as rivals.
  1.       If you prefer not to play games, your preferences are a problem to be overcome.
              That’s our first similarity: if you’re not actively involved in their game, the gaming industry wants to disrupt your life. Those companies would prefer that you were playing their games, generating revenue for them. The modern economy also only cares about you if you’re participating (i.e. spending). Things that aren’t expenditure not only have no value; they have negative value, because of the opportunity cost. You could have been spending money instead. That’s a very basic point, which makes it a good place to start. Neither the economy, nor the modern games industry, actually wants what’s best for you.
                           
A discussion of games and what makes them special
              In decades past, video games were a bit like the most famous board games. You bought a one-off product which worked, you played it, and you moved on when you got bored, but had it stashed away ready to play again when the whim took you.
              When we play Monopoly for the first time it’s novel and exciting. It’s probably the most well-known board game, so everyone will remember the race to land on properties, hoping to amass a set. And most people will now also know the grim slog once one person has got a few sets as everyone else goes bankrupt painfully slowly; and many of us know little rules of thumb: go for orange and brown sets, expensive isn’t necessarily better. We have solved the game as far as it can be solved, and playing it through has become a game of chance as we watch the dice rolls unfold.
              Video games also went through these phases, and the industry knows it. There’s excitement, problem-solving and then nostalgia. But there’s more; games are not just puzzles, but also stories. And like stories, they draw people in in an entirely different way as well: with atmosphere. The joy of the story, the appeal of the aesthetic and the ability to make it your own make games a wonderful combination of puzzle-solving decisions, non-puzzle ‘style’ decisions and immersion in a fun, characterful world. I’m not a literary critic, but I’m pretty sure that humans like stories because they either like the characters, treat the plot as a puzzle that they try to solve, or like the overall message of the story. So there’s puzzle-solving even in films and books. Games just force you to wait until you’ve solved the puzzle before the plot progresses.
              The ability to make your own choices is hugely rewarding. Not just in an abstract way. Every time you make a decision that seems to have been right, your brain rewards itself with a little bit of dopamine. Good outcomes give pleasure; brain pathways that lead to bad outcomes weaken and fade. This is the essence of learning; we not only learn, but get pleasure from learning. If we didn’t have any biological incentive to learn and improve, we’d probably all be mindless apes still.
              This is where modern games have evolved. They no longer present us with a puzzle and trust us to get fun from it. They try to tap into our brain processes directly, bypassing our conscious or semi-conscious minds.
2.       Games appeal directly to our primitive reward centres
              And if the mention of dopamine hits reminds you of addiction, you’re right. That’s exactly the same process people describe when explaining how drug-taking becomes addictive. Games are made to be addictive, not fun: fun is bypassed, because addiction is a more powerful way to ensure that you keep on doing something.
3.       Games are made to be addictive
              A few examples: rewards come soon after actions and are more obvious, in the form of loot drops from enemies. The requirement for good tactics (which requires clever developers who are good at tactics themselves) is superseded by ‘grindy’ reliance on chance. In Candy Crush, levels are either easy enough that you don’t need to think too carefully, or too hard because there is so little room for planning moves that there still isn’t much strategy, with only a few candies on the screen at all.
4.       Removing strategic planning helps to disengage our rational minds
              Time limits are also great for creating addiction. Sure, we all understand that time limits add an extra challenge to something that we can master in as much time as we need. That’s why exams are timed and why chess tournaments have timers. But when you’re slobbing with friends and you play poker, or Monopoly; or if you go very old-fashioned and play solitaire (once called patience before Microsoft told us all a new name) on your own, do you always add a timer for extra fun? Games use timers to force quick decisions; to create a restriction that otherwise the game lacks. Quick decisions take us much closer to gambling; we’re much closer to just pulling a lever on a one-armed bandit, or dumping a chip on a roulette bet. Happily, it also helps us disengage the slow, rational part of our brain which might question exactly why we’re doing this at all.
5.       Quicker thinking is less thinking
              The complex decision-making, which is the essence of strategy and tactics, is replaced with mere reward/penalty based on chance. Gaming is replaced by the far easier to create gambling (not by coincidence, it seems, is the gambling industry called the gaming industry, which is why I’ve tried to write about games rather than gaming so far. Now we know that in the modern world they’re the same, I won’t bother).
6.       Tension of not knowing an outcome is easier to manufacture than fun or interest, but at least as compulsive.
              The ‘excitement’ or tension of not knowing what you’re going to get from a loot box or from  a rapid decision made without thought is not quite the same as fun, but easily mistakable for it. And, for many people, essential for all the most fun things. But it’s not sufficient to make something fun. You’re in a state of nervous anticipation when your boss announces who’s going to be made redundant, but it’s not fun. You’d far rather that your job was safe, and if you’re going to gamble for good stuff, why not just play a lottery?
              How else do games get you? Well, when you lose, you might suffer a gameplay penalty. Maybe you’ll need to prepare for that attempt all over again. Maybe you have to pay directly with in-game resources in some way. But if it feels close, you’re likely to want to nudge that loss into a win. And that’s when the game tries to sell you a bit of help. Couldn’t defeat that boss? Buy an extra life and carry on. You might have decided that you want to spend no money on the game; you might have chosen a specific package and paid for that, but your preferences change in the moment. For a brief moment, you want that extra life a lot more, so that’s when the pop-up box arrives. You don’t need to plan by buying enough lives (itself a pretty dodgy proposition) at some other time.
7.       They will reach you when your resistance is weakest.
8.       They will make sure you feel most of the way there even when you’re not
              There’s free-to-play, which got me a few times. Start them off free and let them see what they could be getting. Innocent enough if it’s a pack of nails. Not so innocent if it’s cocaine. And once people start a ftp game, many never intend to spend. How to break that resolution? Offer an amazing deal: a massive discount for first purchases.
9.       They break you in with ‘no-brainer’ offers
              Of course, what is a discount on a price you made up in the first place? Advertise in-game purchases at silly prices and even something ridiculously expensive still looks relatively good. Anchoring bias is a known fallacy in people’s reasoning, in which they struggle to ignore the first number they’ve seen in a context, even when they know it’s irrelevant. How much does it cost a games company to let you have a few different bits of information associated with your game? Nothing at all.
10.   They use universal human cognitive biases to escape rational evaluation
              And once games have these money-making schemes established, it makes sense to design games to provide more such opportunities. Games need points which are near-impossible to overcome without in-game consumables (which can be topped up with purchases) or perhaps help that can only be purchases. Games need to be slow and grindy; the option to speed them up can be bought. They need to be only just good enough to get people interested, but mostly addictive. And then you can sell the fun once people are hooked. Or sell the dopamine hit once you’ve created the need for it.
11.   They create downs; to create moments when your resistance is weakest (see number 7)
              How else do games get you? People tend to enjoy getting better. Of course, a game requiring skill is too inaccessible for the unskilled, and too beatable for the skilled. Don’t make a person get better, but simulate it by allowing them to accumulate bonuses. This, like most of these tactics, emerged naturally out of reasonable uses. Role-playing games naturally involve building characters and having those characters improve over time. That aspect of gaming is in itself addictive: people have targets to work towards even if you haven’t got more levels or different gameplay to offer. But instead of making the game ‘completable’, just create a massive skill tree that will take forever to progress through. Or have ‘unlockable’ sections that depend on scarce in-game resources… which can be bought.
12.   They create arbitrary targets for you to achieve
13.   They restrict the achievability of targets so that only purchases can help
              One of the most toxic ways of getting users to come back is real-time gameplay. This isn’t the same ‘real-time’ as in ‘real-time strategy’ games, which are continuous rather than turn-based. Modern real-time games run even when you’re not playing them. You miss out on the chance to get better; you miss out on possible attacks aimed at you. Everything takes time. Maybe you want to upgrade your base camp (they’re often some parody of a strategy game): you accumulate enough resources and then it’ll take 6 hours. If you keep on checking the game, you can set that going during the day and then your base camp will be ready for you to use that evening after work. Or you can wait until the evening, and it’ll run overnight and you’ll only have it the next evening.
              And, of course, you can speed anything up by spending real money.
14.   They abuse FOMO (‘fear of missing out’)
15.   They abuse loss aversion: the anxiety about being taken advantage of while not playing
16.   They build habits of continuing usage
17.   They artificially spread out rewards to make them more effective at training you.

In-game currencies exist, of course. But they are often meaningless. You are awarded enough of these to make you feel invested in the game, perhaps with a rewarding message congratulating you on winning them. Most modern games, especially free-to-play mobile games, have two currencies. And, as with the real world, only one currency can be the real restriction on trade. Card points on store cards do buy you real things, but you need to have spent a massive amount already before you get freebies.
18.   They give you something to make you feel rich and valued.
19.   Gifts always encourage expenditure; maybe they are incomplete in some way or easily achievable without being given them; or unusable without extra things.
There are usually easy ways to get in-game currency (gold pieces, say); you play the game as normal and rewards just happen. It might be a bit of a grind, but within the bounds of normality, given that doing anything, fun or not, takes time. The special currency (gems, or jewels, or crystals, because game designers now have very little imagination) is won from gameplay very rarely. You might get a tiny trickle, just so that you can occasionally make a purchase with it and experience the massive benefits, but not enough that you can meet all your gameplay needs. You have to buy this currency.
20.   Real expenditure is what matters, even though they’ll hide this with other achievements, congratulations and rewards
              Many games now advertise their multiplayer status as if this is a good thing. It does seem that many people like to challenge themselves against other humans. This is because games developers are bad at writing AI. AI is hard to do; writing a strategic genius without giving it a headstart in the game is hard. Most ‘hard’ AI is hard because the game gives the AI unfair bonuses, not because the AI behaves much more intelligently. In real-time strategy games, each AI unit escapes trouble or takes obvious opportunities while player units sit there idly waiting for orders because the player can only scroll and click so fast. The player isn’t adding strategy, but trying to replace a computer’s processing power.
              When people tire of that Sisyphean challenge, they turn to other humans. It’s more challenging: more exciting. And games have gleefully leapt on this bandwagon. It’s easier to be a platform than a content-provider. Why bother writing AI when you just have to connect two humans? Why bother providing background characters when you can have a massively multiplayer game and have real people be the background?
21.   They make you do the work for them
              But let’s not forget that, where games allow, people play the single-player game first. They explore the game as a game before resorting to other people. Multiplayer is an attempt to get more value out of a game that hasn’t provided enough; it’s because AI isn’t good enough.
22.   Your solutions to their failures are turned into selling points.
              Multiplayer is, across a population, necessarily worse for players. People get the most joy from overcoming challenges. They need to be challenged, but also enjoy winning. AI needs to get harder while always being a step below the player. Open-world environments with hard sections (and auto-levelling is incredibly frustrating, as it makes getting better not better) provide other places where players can practice or collect in-game abilities before returning to the hard section. Multiplayer necessarily means that people are not being challenged but mostly winning: there will be as many human wins as human losses. In games between more than two players, there will be far more losses than wins. If players are matched by ability, each player should win only half his games; if they’re not matched, then many interactions will be complete walkovers, with the loser getting nothing out of it except whatever penalty comes with losing.
23.   Creating competition spares them the burden of rewarding everyone
              Many people enjoy winning even walkovers, so there’ll be enough high-level players scouring the game for many low-level players that the game will turn into a meta-game of avoiding those bad match-ups. Some people enjoy the grief they imagine others feeling; they like the feeling of power and utter dominance. Fair enough, against an AI. Not so cool with other people. Most games will avoid that as it will scare new players away. But it can also act as an incentive for them to spend to catch up, and as an incentive for players to spend to be so dominant, so even though it destroys fun, a bit of it can increase revenue.
24.   They indulge people’s baser, antisocial tendencies.
Since number 24 is so broadly phrased, it’s worth considering social pressure. Children especially feel the need to fit in, but few people like letting others down. Games get you to form connections with other players online, offering rewards for joining teams, sending a few messages and forming social bonds. You’ll want to carry on playing to support your new friends.
Even when you can’t purchase gameplay, social pressure can help make people buy aesthetic adjustments. There are plenty of reports of children being bullied for having the default ‘skin’ for their animation in Fortnite - how I loathe deliberate mis-spellings that intend to be cool – and ‘vanilla’, which is the unaltered, basic version of something, is now a playground insult.
I know of no evidence of games encouraging outright bullying, but precious little action that might truly fight it. PR statements do no good. Of course, any reasonable designer would have anticipated the possibility, and a worthy one would have prevented it to begin with without needing PR statements or later adjustments. The need for further action is itself a failure.
25.   PR statements are an alternative to action, not an accompaniment

              Returning to AI, this itself is a big topic. Adaptive AI, which gets harder if the player is doing better, might at a low level be a helpful way of balancing a game. But as games rely on it more and more, they reward achievement less and less. You’ve become skilled? Harder enemies, same challenge. You’ve found a good tactic? Harder enemies, back to same challenge again (but forced to use that tactics every time). You had a lucky run? Harder enemies. The player’s achievements become less meaningful and the player becomes locked into doing whatever worked best that first time. There is no room to explore or try new things. And if the player’s achievements are less meaningful, the game turns into a gambling game once more. Gamble and gamble, building in-game abilities in the hope that things will become easier again, without realizing that the challenges will always scale so that the fun times will always be just out of reach.
26.   The experience is as controlled and prescribed as possible – to prevent you getting too much out of it.
              Allowing players to pick their challenge gives them a chance to find fun without paying for it. If they hate the daily grind they must pay to avoid it. If they do the grind just to achieve one target, make sure the target moves. If they find the grind enjoyable, make it less fun until they’re willing to pay.

Company operating model (rather than game design)
              All my examples are of games-as-a-service. Why sell a game once and then forget it when you can turn it into ongoing revenue? This emerged, I think, from the accountancy practice of spreading the costs and revenues relating to a product over its lifetime. If I pay £100 to rent something for 2 years, my first year should only really show an expense of £50, because the other half is for the second year’s worth of use.
              When you’re already spreading things out like this, it’s not much of a leap to change payment patterns to match the prudent and sensible profit and loss accounting. Why sell a jet engine for a massive up-front fee when you’re going to recognise that income over the 10 years that you’ve guaranteed its operation? Just charge a yearly fee for use of an operational engine.
              But what could be a like-for-like swap becomes a money-making scam when it comes to consumers rather than big corporations. Individual customers do not have the time, nor the ability, often, to judge what’s a reasonable ongoing fee. The anchoring bias mentioned earlier, for example, will make a low monthly fee seem cheaper than a big one-off payment, because the number is smaller.
27.   Ongoing services rarely offer much service
              People stay because there’s a cost associated with cancelling a subscription. It takes time and effort (and ‘good’ companies ensure that it’s as hard as possible in order to enhance customer retention).  
28.   Barriers to ending the ‘relationship’ help make money
              Changing to a subscription model is a bit like the free-to-play or low introductory offer ploys. Get them in first, and then they’re exposed to all the addictive forces encouraging them to spend more. What extra do they get for the money? What extra programming will a developer have done by the time the second payment is taken? If there is anything new, it’s usually paywalled and has to be bought separately. If you’ve spent some money, you’ll follow that sunk cost with more expenditure to try to make good on that first expenditure. If the servers for playing other gamers are the service, then the game lacks content to begin with. Surely you should be paying the random stranger who’s going to let you beat him? Running servers is a lot cheaper than developing software.
              I think the reasoning goes like this: if people tend to play a game for 60-80 hours and will pay the purchase cost for that, then presumably they’ll be willing to pay that again for another 60-80 hours. That’s true so far, but only if we assume that every game is worth it. Part of what makes customers willing to pay so much is that although they risk buying a dud, that’s balanced by the chance of buying something they enjoy more than average and therefore get a lot of time from. If you make them pay for those extra hours of fun, nothing is balancing the chance of a dud. Companies are implying that every game will be above average for every person’s tastes, which is impossible.
              Each company might not want to subsidise the industry as a whole by having their super games encourage players to branch out and buy games in general. But the race to monetise all value means that they all share the burden of falling interest as gamers become hesitant about taking the risk on any of them.
29.   Companies create a tragedy of the commons through short-term revenue-maximisation
              Finally, games as service gives companies that ‘touchpoint’ with the customer; ongoing bank details and the knowledge that they’re paying, as well as data on usage and temptation. If I play on my own PC, away from the internet, how can I ever be persuaded to pay them more? It’d have to be through having provided me such a good game that I simply choose to come back. But providing good games up-front is a terrible idea; it’s expensive and risky and people might not even care about your idea of ‘good’.
              If there’s a one-off sale, there’s a promise that the product alone is worth what is paid. Services, on the other hand, can offer to make it good if people complain: “You’ve spent with us, now let’s go on a journey together in which we pretend to spend the money you’ve already given us to make something we should have given you in the first place”. Marketing talk of journeys is a bit odd: if someone has to go on a journey, they have to be in the wrong place to begin with.
30.   The finished product rarely is: launch hype is cheaper than quality
31.   Early-adopters are cash-cows, not valued partners
I tend to avoid buying games on release. For many years new releases have been expensive, charging buyers money for ‘newness’ and feeling ‘with it’ or up-to-date. The same with films, phones and cars: if you live your life a year behind, you will be materially almost no worse off, but financially much better off.
              At first, early-adopters paid for innovation, speeding it up. But nowadays companies know that their demand is so inelastic that they don’t bother providing anything new: they just take the money and run, sometimes providing more value, in time, for the later buyers, and sometimes not even that.
              Those are all examples of how the game itself is designed for addiction, and how revenue and fun are in conflict in a big way, and revenue wins. Outside of gameplay itself, the gaming industry also serves as a nice example of the modern world.
              Games companies justify their unfun games by saying that people get a feeling of satisfaction when something is very hard; without constant failure, success is less sweet. There’s a grain of truth to it, but this can be turned into emotional blackmail. People who wisely give up are ‘quitters’ or just couldn’t hack it; some games market themselves as extremely difficult and create a cult of difficulty that looks down on easy games that n00bs can play. Games that should be about personal enjoyment turn into tribal cults deliberately building rivalry with other people, and hence loyalty. Loyalty means money for nothing; the market transaction is replaced by membership of a tribe.
32.   ‘Having to work hard for it is what makes it valuable’ – even though you could work hard for anything, which would presumably therefore be as valuable.
33.   Loyalty (‘consumer engagement’) is an alternative to value
              Games companies know they’re dealing in addiction and gambling. Yet many of their games are for children. The answer? PR/lobbying campaigns to persuade anyone who matters not to classify gambling mechanics, such as loot boxes, as gambling. Then it’s ok to target children.
34.   Serious problems are addressed through political acquiescence, not helping people.
              They promise things for PR purposes, perhaps around launch time, but backtrack when everything is quiet. ‘No in-game purchases’ might turn into ‘purchases that don’t affect gameplay’ which might morph into purchasable ‘skins’ with some gameplay effects, or ammunition (so you need to have the gun already), and finally purchasing the win.
35.   They give in to campaigns (and make PR triumphs of listening to the ‘community’) but change back when they can.
              ‘Not for children’ comes with no controls to exclude children, safe in the knowledge that children love things that claim to be more adult. Childish graphics and text is still ‘not for children’. The words are not consistent with the actions.
36.   Words are cheaper than action
              Platforms try to host platforms and take a cut of others’ revenue. Steam is a platform from which you can buy games and is close to a monopoly. There aren’t lots of online shops. Platforms maintain monopolies with things like noncompete clauses insisting that games are exclusively available on the platform. Developers who want access to a platform’s large reach cannot sell it from their own website. Those that can try to get subscribers to build their own database of customers and form ‘customer relationships’. There is no free market in which people buy and sell and transactions are free. There is a web of exclusivity and sign-ups. Apparently Epic Games has set up a rival platform, and is buying its way into competition by buying exclusivity agreements with known brands. Because a new platform stands no chance; the only way to compete with an established platform/network is to buy your way in. If you starve the wider environment of ‘top’ games, people will come your way.
37.   Platforms that take a cut of others’ revenue make money off others’ work.
              And then there’s tax dodging via offshore structures and government subsidy for creative industries. Not that they create much of value any more; they create need, or negative value, and sell the solution. Why not just subsidise drug gangs, who also pay no tax? It’s easy to dodge tax with intangible assets (rights and software, for example). These can be transferred abroad, or owned abroad, without having to transport anything except an idea.
38.   Taxpayer support is required, but the taxpayer gets no support (unlike political parties)
              The games industry even has the work ethic of the modern world nailed. Games are (supposedly) big, finishable projects. Most games now have ‘crunch’ periods, in which developers are expected to work very hard to meet the upcoming deadlines. There seems to be little reward afterwards; no time off in lieu or extra annual leave. Just another game to be worked on, with crunch periods expanding and the working hours getting worse. ‘“We worked, typically, 50- or 60-hour weeks and upwards of 70-hour weeks on occasion,” one source who worked as a contractor in QA said. “If I got to the end of an eight-hour workday and I turned to my supervisor to ask if I needed to stay on, they’d often look at me as if I was actively stupid. Officially, you don’t have to keep working, but in reality: ‘sit back down, we’ll be here for a while.’ If you did not do overtime, that was a mark against your character.”’
              Developers are hired on temporary contracts and abandoned if they won’t donate their time to the company while CEOs take all that money saved as compensation for running the company so well.
39.   Cultural pressure to work substitutes for financial incentives to work (i.e. being paid adequately)
              Finally, it seems that the games industry has its share of scandals. People have been mistreated in various ways, but offenders are called bad apples, the company says lessons have been learned, and staff are reshuffled. CEOs try to build a cult of personality; as with loyalty earlier, replacing a rational market transaction with emotional, unreasoned willingness to pay.
40.   Company structures and career paths are a way of avoiding accountability, not defining it.

That was a long run-through of modern gaming. Every point is relevant for the wider economy too. Games can be wonderful ways to spend our time and therefore money, bringing value to our lives. We do all the bad things in life so that we can enjoy leisure time, and games have for thousands of years been one of the most popular leisure activities. They are what we aspire to do. Human happiness is the point of all human striving.
              Our capitalist economy also has noble ideals. If we’re all free to pursue what we want, and exchange what we have freely, we will lose what we value less and gain what we value more, and so will everyone else. All our exchanges will add up to increased happiness for everyone.
              But those ideals are not matched by reality. We can see how all forty of the above problems could have emerged gradually from slightly sharp practice, or well-meaning attempts to provide something good. But as they become more extreme, and blend with each other, we get an entirely different environment.
              It’s this gradual environmental shift that’s worth emphasizing. At what point does night become day? Even on the equator where dusks and dawns are shorter there is no firm boundary. The light is dimmer as the sun goes down, and it’s still light even when the sun is fully below the horizon. Yet night is definitely different from day. The same applies here.
              Our ideal economy might be a wonderful mechanism for making everyone happier; and any one of these issues wouldn’t change that much. But as we add them all up and let them multiply each other we end up somewhere entirely different.
              Modern games are unfun, time-consuming grinds designed to siphon your money away, dangling an unachievable carrot in front of your nose as the game rides you to exhaustion. The dream of a joyful way to relax has been whittled away. The difference, I hope you now see, is stark.
              And it’s that stark difference that most people fail to see in the modern economy, instead choosing to forgive individual problems as not that big a deal… assuming that everything else is running in an ideal way.
              The modern world wants to sell you customer engagement and consumer journeys. Loyalty, PR and branding substitutes for quality. Marketing and products create needs rather than satisfying pre-existing ones. Platforms take a cut of transactions they didn’t contribute to just because they have the biggest social network and now can never be displaced. The biggest companies pay too little tax, rewarding tax consultants, CEOs and CFOs instead of the country buying their products. Social pressure drives expenditure, even at the cost of happiness. And behind it all there’s a culture that hard work is its own reward… so you should do it just because, and if you don’t you’re a unworthy outcast.
              I don’t think we should abandon markets. Markets are powerful tools. But a vast amount of the modern economy is aimed at removing those ideal conditions for a good market, or taking advantage of imperfections: perfect information, rational consumers with consistent, unvarying preferences. We are addicts, with companies cynically trying to manipulate us to extract our wealth and make us want to work for more. I wrote this entire article to emphasize this one important point: games demonstrably turn gamers into addicts; and the rest of the economy knows and uses all the same techniques. Just compare a modern mobile game like the mass-advertised 'clash of clans' to the older-style SimCity or Civilization series. You might think you’re immune to advertising, but even if you’re not directly swayed, the morass of misinformation and the cultural background it creates will still affect you.
              We need drastic changes to free our markets and ourselves. Regulation shouldn’t be a dirty word. Where there isn’t perfect information, which is a prerequisite of the ideal market, we should encourage transparency. Where there is no competition because of natural barriers to entry we should regulate to break those barriers. Where companies complain we should recognise that we’re doing good. In a theoretical market people will take opportunities and innovate in response to challenges. If companies complain about regulatory change, they are admitting that they cannot innovate or adapt – so they don’t want free markets, they want stasis.
             

Optional extras
If you want me to feed you a few of my favourite links between these points about video games and other areas of our lives, read on. If you’ve spotted your favourites already, well done.
In 6 I said that tension is easier to make than fun. We see this in a lot of television (both game shows and other shows). Tension is everywhere. Yes, games shows have longer and longer pauses for results, with teasers in between: who dropped the cake we saw splat on the floor? Tension is a necessary part of the format: of course we watch a competition in part to find out who wins. But the longer and longer pauses, dramatic commentary, often directly asking us ‘who will win?’ and suspenseful editing have become more of a focus than simply reporting events.
              In screenplays still, we have become more and more dependent on drama: exaggerated displays of emotion. Emotion and conflict appeal directly to our emotional, empathetic brains. Engaging plots or more believable characterisation are less effective. Watching the original Star Trek is relaxing for me not because of the amazing special effects, or even the uninventive plots (‘supernatural, incomprehensible entity takes control’ half the time) but because characters deal with conflict in a human way. Spock and Bones bicker, making snarky asides at each other. They don’t have flaming rows like modern characters do. When Kirk has a few temper tantrums it’s a sign that he’s out of his mind and unfit to command, an episode that explores the nature of absolute command. Modern characters are relatively infantile, despite being written in a more socially progressed society. Our rational minds are constantly being ignored.
              Points 7 and 8 are also very important. We have moods: ups and downs that for most of us come and go reasonably naturally. Sometimes we feel like ice cream and then 30 minutes later we realise it was just a passing whim and we want a hotdog… or to go for a run. Our friends help us; they advise patience, offer sympathy and help us wait until we feel better. The modern world can track us constantly, identifying weak moments and reaching us in those moments, and this ability is getting better very fast. It is now a virtue to succumb to temptation: a demonstration that you deserve it, a happy indulgence. Yet most people feel just as happy having resisted temptation: when the whim has faded, you feel as happy as if you had satisfied it, if not more so.
              The ability to catch us at our weakest doesn’t offer value: satisfying transient whims can never offer more than equally transient happiness, unless we develop a culture that values whimsy and indulgence as goods in themselves. We all know the sorts of advertising that encourage that, but we all rationally know, when I write it out here, that the more Stoic approach of not bothering to indulge and having a little patience is better for us.
              Those gains realised by modern advertising are taking value from us, not providing it.

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