Wednesday, 16 September 2015

Conservative commitments - 37, 29 failures



This is only doable because the Conservatives have made students pay for their education through tuition fees. Students are, by definition, still in education and therefore unable to pay for education, making this an intrinsically regressive and socially unjust policy. If apprenticeships are worth funding, so is higher education, with all the externalities that I mentioned back then.
The more students who study anything defined as higher education, the less money there is for any one person. This policy will therefore help low-grade courses displace talented students on demanding degrees, including degrees that the Conservatives regard as worthwhile, such as engineering and mathematics.
I have been persuaded that a wide range of degrees is actually useful and beneficial to society, but that doesn’t matter here; the Conservative policy directly conflicts with their own stated preferences.
If we lifted the cap on university places and funded only the top few universities, such as by making Russell Group university places free, that would be good. Talented individuals from any background could get a high-level education, with merit deciding who got the funding.
It’s a shame the Liberal Democrats got such a bad reputation about tuition fees, when it was a Conservative part of a coalition deal. The Conservatives slyly escaped any repercussions for it when it was mostly their responsibility. This new policy will help ensure that another generation of young people gets heavily into debt. Student loans are no longer cheap debt at low interest rates; the students will pay dearly for the privilege of education. A large proportion of the additional students won’t be people converting their life prospects from meaningless, low-paid drudgery to being well-paid high-flyers. The correlations between educational attainment and pay are not (necessarily) causations, as any statistician will agree. I don’t have to rely on logic to make this point either: the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development has issued a report noting that most graduates are not in ‘graduate jobs’, and that our conveyor belt of degrees is not leading to more high-skilled jobs. This is not a supply issue.
People who come from wealthy backgrounds tend to do well in life, and also tend to do well in education. Education is a sorting/signalling method, and we have underemployment in this country not because people need masters degrees to serve coffee but because there is not enough demand for their supposedly higher skills. Conservative thought shows a remarkable ability to believe that the markets/business can and will solve everything… except when they’re not solving things, in which case it must be because of some other limiting factor. We do not have a population with too few degrees holding back productivity. We have too few jobs that pay degree-holders well.
The extra degrees aren’t even likely to be high-quality ones. This policy will encourage impressionable young people to take on expensive debt in pursuit of an aspiration that this won’t help them achieve. It’s selling false hope and it’s wrong.
The cost of student loans is high; it has been estimated to be 43p for every £1 loaned. However, the effective state subsidy is much higher for low-paid graduates, which lifting the cap is likely to produce. At that point it’s more like 93%, or £36k per person. Further effects, such as not expecting such generous earnings growth, could increase the % level further. It’s hard to forecast student enrolments, but there are data about student numbers, which are already increasing. If this policy change only creates another 30,000 students a year (compared to the millions in higher education) it will still cost the government £1 bn a year. More students will increase that figure further.

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